market assessment I/2009 (as of 20/02/2009)
Dirk Schmidt-sense
1. Capital markets - anesthetized!
second What happened behind the scenes
How good is 2.1 of the state? - Assessment of state credit ratings
2.2 How America pays back its debts? 3.2
lasting distrust in the banking industry
4.2 Real economic implications - what the whole thing out?
third What does this mean for the capital markets?
first Capital markets - anesthetized!
The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in world financial markets, a unique situation arose for which there is neither in life nor in science a blueprint. A downward spiral consisting of bad news from financial and real economy was set in motion that has accelerated significantly until the end.
with hot needle are being put together rescue packages world wide, that the financial system should be stabilized and large enterprises are to be saved from bankruptcy. Each new piece of bad news is greeted with renewed government relief efforts to meet the situation will worsen to connect. Another bank failure of "systemically important" bank is to be avoided at all costs and a government bank rescue aims to maintain the functioning of the financial system.
All the principles of free capital markets are thrown overboard, and trusting in the omnipotence of the state made every effort to ensure a return to normalcy.
massive business losses on the one hand, are facing huge aid packages from state authority. Figures are in space, the extent and effect are hardly estimated, especially since the numbers game with billions and billions breaks currently inflationary about us.
already celebrate their rescue actions the States as a step in the right direction
and is hoping that everything comes back fine.
Despite increasing risks fall on government budgets, the interest on state securities
and give the impression that would in these times of government securities
last refuge of safety. Once again, the hope is prevalent, to get with a policy of cheap money
the problems of the capital markets under control, while this policy has exactly contributed significantly in the past to the current situation. Now, another "fuel to the fire" is molded to the surface fire to stop it.
While the capital markets currently under the influence of government intervention, large Zahlen und dem Vertrauen in die Rettungskraft der Staaten in einer Art Narkosezustand verharren, stellt sich die Frage, was nach Abklingen der Narkosewirkung auf uns zu kommt. Schliesslich ist Narkose nicht mit Heilung gleichzusetzen.
2. Was hinter den Kulissen passiert
2.1 Wie gut ist der Staat ? - Beurteilung von Staatsbonitäten
Während sich Kapitalmärkte und Wirtschaft im letzten Jahrzehnt zunehmend globaler organisiert haben, sind die Politik und die Aufsicht der Märkte noch viel zu stark national geprägt. Nationale Interessen werden vor allem in der Politik sehr hoch gewichtet und diese logische "nationale" Brille der Staaten zeigt sich in den Lösungsansätzen der globalen Financial and economic crisis. Now take
required concerted global action to rescue the world financial system on concrete national interests to protect the domestic real economy. One prominent example is the bailout for General Motors, Chrysler and Ford in the U.S.. Here is a complete industry in the United States stands on the brink of. At the U.S. automotive industry hang about 1.5 million jobs, the loss of the U.S. economy would prefer a massive hit.
With the rescue of these firms remain the global over-capacity of the car manufacturers there and prevent the overdue market correction.
During the bankruptcy will be a disaster for the United States, it would be in a global context a mandatory requirement in the sense of functioning of free markets. Those free markets where has George W. Bush, met again last.
threatens Now, instead of free markets, a return to state protectionism, sacrificed at the end of the global markets, national interests.
The IMF warns of a trend in many states to close the domestic market from foreign competition. "If any country from behind its borders, then the already serious crisis would worsen further." This could generate a vicious circle of protectionism. Instead
global predatory capitalism now threatens massive government market influence with national and socialist Trains. With the campaign "Buy America" \u200b\u200beven the first mother has shown her true face of capitalism short in a crisis. Fatal
it only appears that the problems of the world financial system can only be solved globally concerted. Thus, the states between the domestic needs of the real economy and rescue the financial system are torn.
Many states have to rescue their national banking systems have already lost a lot of substance and can cover other financial needs only about increasing their debt. This relationship in turn has prompted international investors, government funding, to illuminate and countries with large current account deficits and high public debt to avoid.
Even within the euro area begin the risk premiums for individual countries to increase significantly. The euro-zone countries Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal and Ireland have already pay significantly higher interest rates. Greece currently has to pay for a ten-year bond almost 3% more than is to be paid for ten-year German government bonds.
This reasonable mechanism of risk-adequate pricing of government bonds strengthened the financial situation of these countries.
The failure probabilities of many states to get and pay most attention to the euro area remains a difficult test. If in the event of a national bankruptcy of an EU country other EU countries are to rescue proceed? Is there soon to euro area government bonds to weaker EU countries can benefit from the good credit standing strong EU states?
is much more dramatic, the situation in other countries dar. Many Eastern European countries, for example from the area are heavily in debt and need money from the IMF, or the threat of national bankruptcy. The identification of weak states is long underway and results in the
investors that States shall not be any money available, but instead pull invested capital in addition, exacerbating the situation of these States.
Even the states are in the IMF line, with credit needs to to finance its public debt, since they get no more money in the capital market.
The IMF is here only "redistribution point", as the capital of the IMF is taken from the established countries (G 20). Ie each of the IMF bailout burden on other states also.
experience In return, supposedly strong states significant inflows, as the international capital looking for the "safe" harbor.
What started as a banking crisis threatens, in the months to mutate into a national crisis. Also at the state level first is the weak under pressure from a certain explosive nature then are the "strong" states affected.
02.02 How America pays back his debt ?
Interessanterweise profitiert ausgerechnet der US-Dollar von der Risikoaversion der Kapitalmärkte und steigt derzeit gegenüber den meisten anderen Währungen an.
Und dies obwohl sich die US-Wirtschaft in desolater Verfassung befindet, und die
Hiobsbotschaften wöchentlich an Brisanz gewinnen.
Als Begründung muß die weltweite Verbreitung des USD dienen. Rein auf Basis der schieren Menge, der in Umlauf befindlichen Dollars, ist es weit wahrscheinlicher, daß kleine Währungen unter Druck kommen, als daß der weltweit verteilte USD ad hoc an Stellenwert verliert. Dies wiederum verleiht dem USD den einzigartigen Status eines "sicheren" Hafen, den er eigentlich nicht verdient hat.
Tatsächlich there is a global competition of paper currencies, which should gain in
currencies with the largest circulation. These currencies are more likely to have the easiest to refinance the required debt on the capital market.
The American dilemma is a combination of massive debt, huge foreign debt and huge household debt. The total debt amounts already in 2004 to 40 trillion, which stands at around 440 percent of annual GDP. More than 70 percent of U.S. GDP to flow immediately into consumption. The savings rate is zero - the services share in GDP is about 70 percent.
In 2004, an average family of four in the United States a debt of $ 545,916. The U.S. citizen is trapped in a debt issue. His fortune is in his own flat, the permanent loses its value. His pension is invested in stocks, whose prices fall continuously. His job is in jeopardy because of the recession and its liabilities exceed its assets. The household debt stands at over 105% of GDP. No wonder that these households can not consume more.
The distribution of wealth in the U.S. shows how widespread the problem of consumption is total failure. 5% of Americans hold 60% of total assets. 60% of Americans own 6.6% of total assets and 20% of Americans have no assets. It is therefore assumed that 60 - 70% of Americans have to tighten their belts considerably narrower, and reduce significantly over the years their consumption of material goods and services need. This will be a massive break in U.S. GDP and keep the downward spiral continues in motion. Since
not the Americans can save, the U.S. government does not rely on its citizens when it comes to finance the high public debt for the bailout. The buyers of these bonds have mainly come from abroad because the Americans themselves are very small as Buyers can occur.
The U.S. could in 2009 to fund up to $ 3 trillion debt. To depend not only on foreign demand will be, the American government has allowed its central bank to buy long-dated government bonds. This means that the central bank may fire up the bill press to the state to buy government bonds while also creating an artificial demand for U.S. Treasuries, in order to keep their interest rates low.
Since 23 Published in March 2006, the U.S. central bank is no longer the money supply M3.
This suggests that outsiders are more difficult to recognize the bloated money supply and inflation potential of it.
presented for the first time Moody's now a question of whether a AAA rating for U.S. Treasuries is justified. Against the background of the emerging situation must be assumed that the American government must begin in the medium term to pay risk premiums or sell the majority of new government bonds to its central bank.
still hopes America for permission to share with the support of their new president, the burdens of the reorganization of America with the rest of the world. Finally, from a freshly printed U.S. dollar is not even half remains in the home. And the favorite child of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is the preservation of inflationary tendencies, finally, inflation at any time the most elegant form of state debt. So the U.S. central bank is the first time from an inflation target, as if the permanent inflation in the minds of those who rely on the value and store of value
function of money.
So it seems the choice between an end with horror or terror to exist without end.
3.2 lasting distrust in the banking industry
The task of the banks as financial intermediaries at all times is to provide the real economy with money. Because the test economically sensible investment as lenders, there is an important corrective to entrepreneurial exuberance. So it should.
In search of yield, have sich neben der Realwirtschaft globale Kapitalmärkte etabliert, deren Ausmaß die Volumina der Realwirtschaft ein Mehrfaches übersteigen. Die aktuelle Implosion der Kapitalmärkte führt die Banken nun an die Grenzen ihrer Möglichkeiten, da die veränderte Bewertung der Risiken das Eigenkapital aufzehrt.
Bedauerlicherweise bleibt kaum Substanz übrig, um die nun folgenden Risiken in der Realwirtschaft zu stemmen. Stattdessen sind die Banken zur Unzeit gezwungen, ihre Risikopolitik der veränderten Gesamtsituation anzupassen und damit jegliches Risiko auf absehbare Zeit zu vermeiden.
Schwierig sind auch die weiteren Ertragsaussichten der Banken. Aufgrund der Weltwirtschaftskrise brechen ihnen die Erträge weg. Bei der Deutschen Bank was in the 2007 results, the investment banking accounts for more than half of the yield. This gives some idea will look like the results of the next years. At the same time, loan losses take in the real economy and the securities and derivatives portfolios of the banks at risk of further depreciation risks.
For some banks out of the way probably the nationalization to prevent a complete collapse of the financial markets through further bank failures.
Many investors remain on the finding that the Securitization of equity of banks are now become almost worthless and a quick recovery seems unlikely. On the contrary - because the banks themselves to shoulder the rising costs of refinancing have their remains left over for shareholders and equity shareholders in the foreseeable future but little income. But only meaningful revenues improve the ability of banks to take risks, for example, credit risk, allowing the primary task of the banks, namely the supply of credit to the economy, continue to remain disrupted.
Due to the continuing lack of transparency regarding the actual risk exposure of banks is so important periods of the interbank market remains in the shadows. The money and capital markets to raise capital for banks and businesses remain dry and impede the supply of capital in the economy. Since money
the lubricant of the economy, leads a withdrawal of capital in the real economy inevitably leads to massive distortions.
2.4 Real economic implications - what the whole thing out?
The state has its hands full to save the banks. The Treasury also initiated major economic stimulus packages to boost the economy. Both tasks are very expensive and reduce the possibilities of access in addition to financing in the current situation on the ground.
Banks get government assistance that will ensure their survival, but should not be used to acquire additional risks. It follows logically, a more difficult Lending to the real economy. New investment will remain more expensive in the absence of funding and existing financing, or are not renewed.
Based on this framework we are currently experiencing a unique contraction of money and credit, and worldwide, a massive contraction of credit markets. This results in a credit crunch, especially for large companies with high debt ratio.
current example is the takeover by Schaeffler-Continental. Because of the VDO's acquisition of Continental, the debt of Continental had already increased dramatically. This situation weighed on the price of Continental's stock. In this situation, Schaeffler decided to conduct a hostile takeover Continental - also highly leveraged. Now both companies have difficulties in finding investors and lenders, fall away as the core business due to the massive drop in demand in the automotive sector profits.
The buying power of Americans in the past was responsible for about 15 percent of global GDP. On credit, the American consumer has occupied the rest of the world. The Americans have 980 billion credit card debt and auto and consumer loans of $ 1.6 trillion accumulated. The private mortgage amount to about 10 trillion. Last
increased the savings rate, the 2007 still remained at zero, to a value of 2.3 percent. Restricts the American consumer aufgrund seiner Überschuldungsproblematik sein Konsumverhalten um ein Drittel ein, sinkt das Weltsozialprodukt um 5 Prozent.
Bedauerlicherweise ist mit längerfristigen Ausfall des amerikanischen Konsumenten zu rechnen. Die Negativeffekte springen nun auf andere Industrienationen über und führen auch dort zu vorübergehender Konsumzurückhaltung.
Die Kompensation dieses Nachfrageausfalls erscheint kurzfristig kaum möglich.
Viele Schwellenländer haben von diesem Nachfrageboom profitiert, der dort viele Menschen in Lohn und Brot brachte. Das Ausbleiben der Nachfrage läßt dort die Zahl der Arbeitslosen steigen. Die Kaufkraft dieser Länder kann den Ausfall nicht kompensieren, vor allem wird sie zum weiteren Aufbau the economy needs.
This situation leads to a massive capacity adjustment, particularly in industries that operate globally. Now the industrial nations have sprung up, with government stimulus packages and try to mitigate this development. Investment in infrastructure and consumer promotion programs to bring the stalled engine going again. However, these measures, in addition to preferential effects, hardly ensure sustainable growth. Rather, it is expected that observed after an ebbing of the state programs, a renewed decline in economic output. Furthermore
could oust the government demand meaningful private investment and a continuing hope on "the state is already set up" in motion. This leads to the limits of the medium term financial solvency of the state.
The immense public demand for money, the role played in this year on capital markets will plague the company. The demand for state money could replace the company's demand for capital and raise the cost of corporate lending significantly.
Conclusion: difficulties in the supply of credit, consumer spending
the consumer, market saturation in developed nations, lower investment needs higher prices due to excess capacity, corporate lending and government intervention policy protectionist tendencies will make the real economy to create heavy.
third What does this mean for the capital markets?
How high can the yield be entitled if no growth is achieved? Viewed in the sum of investors may not receive any return if the real economy does not grow. Since some markets are constantly in over-and Untertreibungsphasen, nevertheless, the impression is created can always make money if you are only ever move in the markets that perform just well.
For those who follow, but by long-term investment "buy and hold" strategies, there was the question on ultimate performance claim very well. The financial crisis revealed apparently the problem that the huge amount of money with interest claim is not sufficiently real economic growth potential is facing. This leads to speculative tendencies in the asset classes in which to flourish and capital flows. On balance, however, would apply "as won, so melted away"
danger of deflation - a transient phenomenon?
for the current situation, there is an existing example - Japan.
in Japan was in the early 90's overheating real estate and the stock market. In the heyday of the exaggeration of the Imperial Palace in Tokyo was worth more than all of California. went with the bursting of the bubble Nationalization of the banks along, radical cuts in interest rates led to the zero interest rate policy of the central bank, which endures to this day.
tried in the wake of the Japanese government through massive infrastructure programs to stimulate demand and the national debt has ballooned to 150% of GDP. Nevertheless, unemployment increased rapidly and the Japanese population increased the savings rate out of fear of bad times. While the Nikkei 225 in early 1990 at about 38,000 points was, he now stands at 7400 points. This represents a loss of 80.5% in 29 years.
This situation could be repeated now global. The companies have excess capacity and eliminate them, make no investments in new equipment and certainly no expansion. They do their homework on the cost side, ie release staff and try to lower prices their capacity utilization.
The citizen fear of unemployment - Crisis saving and consumption are the consequence of refusal. The state in turn saves companies to save jobs
replaced and thus the excess capacity, which is reflected in falling prices. He
displaced by private demand and government demand, for example, instead of investing in infrastructure in areas that are sustainably to growth engines of the economy. Thus, they make replacement investments, the effect does not contribute to sustainable growth. Basically, be preferential effects gehoben, um Bevölkerung in Lohn und Brot zu halten. Nach Vollzug ergeben sich kaum Folgeeffekte der Investition. In diesem Umfeld bleibt kein Platz für steigende Preise.
Das zusätzliche Dilemma für den Staat - bestehende Schulden wachsen durch eine Deflation und nehmen nicht wie in einer Inflation ab. Insofern wächst die Sorge, daß die temporäre Deflationstendenzen in eine dauerhafte Deflation münden.
Auswirkungen auf den Aktienmarkt
Die Aktienmärkte stehen weiterhin unter Streß. Permanente Gewinnrevisionen und eine fortdauernde Finanzkrise auf Unternehmens-, Banken- und Staatenebene verschärfen die Situation. Weder die realwirtschaftlichen Indikationen, noch die Marktpsychologie speak for an investment in shares. Only the concerted government stimulus package may provide some relaxation in the equity markets. To do this, the financing of the packages are
and payment effect may be apparent. It could be for the 4th Quarter of 2009, some temporary stabilizing trend derived for the equity markets. Special opportunities
infrastructure Title, commodity values \u200b\u200band Chinese stocks.
The higher weighting of environmental protection could give the "sustainability" lift.
impact on bond markets
The current deflationary trends suggest continued low interest rates - Towards zero interest rate policy, as it is next to Japan, now in the USA and the UK. This allows for superior performance latitude pension title. The risk / return profile is more difficult but because of this asset class a speculative "security bubble" floating.
If the situation continues to worsen, there is concern that the states must pay risk premiums to investors in an unprecedented scale. Relaxed, the situation will, with increased risk appetite of investors in a significant outflow of funds held investments with higher returns. Seen
offer supposedly "risk free" government bonds currently little imagination.
class Corporate bonds offer higher yields in comparison opportunities.
The high risk premium due to the economic environment are entitled to
also lead to a number of well-funded companies for attractive returns. In particular, utilities and telecommunications companies appear interesting because of steady capital inflows. Even short term notes of large automobile companies offer significantly higher coupons.
weaker credit ratings should be avoided as it will here be some failures.
impact on the currency markets with a temporary relaxation in the capital markets, due to the effects of the stimulus package should be reversed, the current dollar strength.
should generally reduce the current debt of the orgy of American country, the U.S. currency - but it benefits as a world currency by the risk aversion of global investors. Furthermore, forcing many global markets, denominated in USD, to hold positions of dollars. Insofar as the U.S. dollar will continue to benefit from a tightening of financial and economic crisis
. The signs of easing in the second half should weaken him.
The current euro weakness is due to the precarious situation in Europe also. A closer look reveals the euro area is in troubled waters. Many EU countries have similar problems as the U.S.. The European economy is growing slower and the population is aging faster than in the U.S.. For the big hit is not a fiscal space given and the decision-making process designed at European level is difficult. The problems of individual EU states could make the euro area
before the ordeal.
The currencies of many emerging economies suffer massive capital outflows from their markets. This puts pressure on the currencies. Since recovery must first come from the developed world, is only in second instance with a recovery in emerging market currencies to be expected. The major currency areas
U.S. dollars, euros and yen are preferred. In the present
Level guests can choose to remain in €.
impact on commodity markets
The commodity markets have corrected heavily. The scarcity of resources is still remained, even if this issue seems to be hidden to date. At its current level of oil and precious metals seem interesting. The oil price is definitely too low, which futures prices are well above the current spot price and point to the expectation of rising oil prices. The precious metals will benefit from its function as a currency crisis - particularly the gold. The gold price is high at more than 1,000 USD / ounce near its all-time
. In comparison is favorable, especially platinum and palladium.
appear interesting increasingly commodity stocks that appear attractive as an alternative to direct investment in commodities. Especially when oil is the raw material share, the more interesting investment, as the raw material can act only on the futures markets and lead to price premiums in forward prices to roll losses. (Contango)
impact on alternative investments
whether hedge funds, ships, aircraft or private equity - currently outweigh the risks in all alternative investments. Debt financing costs rise and the risks are also rising. With all investments there is a risk that investment properties they have acquired too expensive, since the time of purchase often still 2007 und 2008 waren. Damit besteht für Investoren die Gefahr, aufgrund der geringen Transparenz der Beteiligungen, zu teuer einzusteigen. Eine sehr geringe Fremdfinanzierungsquote ist sehr wichtig, denn sonst drohen
Schieflagen, bis hin zur Insolvenz der Beteiligungen.
Erst wenn die niedrigen Rohstoffpreise und die hohen Überkapazitäten den Hersteller zu deutlich niedrigeren Einkaufspreisen von Schiffen und Flugzeugen geführt haben, werden diese Anlageformen wieder hochinteressant. Bei Schiffen und Flugzeugen bestehen derzeit ohnehin Überkapazitäten im Markt, was sich in deutliche sinkenden Charterrates widerspiegelt.
Bei Private Equity wird die Krise der Realwirtschaft zeitversetzt erst in den nächsten
Monaten Arriving since the asset prices after accounting
be adjusted. Some equity will decrease significantly in the coming months, as the adjustment mechanism of the market for non-listed investments does not logically.
Conclusion:
appear interesting at present grade corporate bonds. Equities are using Deep Discount certificates should be a further market decline can be anticipated. In this area, but double-digit returns are possible.
positions in commodity stocks and securities infrastructure can be built up gradually on weak days. Chinese stocks should be added to a fund.
Upstream activities to provide a portion of gold and platinum. Stability to the portfolio brings a German open-ended real estate funds.
