Kapitalmarkteinschätzung 2011 "The Chinese Global Investment Strategy" update 17/10/2010
Author: Dirk Schmidt-sense (dissi@web.de)
first The biggest bubble the world's second
Global currency war - and what are the consequences
third Privatization of the profits - global stock investments
4th Investments in the global real estate markets
5th Raw materials - Direct access vs.. Derivatives solution The Chinese government manages for its economy currently in a volume of about 2.65 trillion U.S. dollars (U.S.: trillions). That money flowed to China because its currency is in a fixed yuan peg to the U.S. dollar coupled added. China must reinvest this capital in order to increase its purchasing power or at least maintain. China is therefore "still" one of the largest buyers of American Treasury bonds, but the increasing international decline in the value of the dollar and the quantitative easing of monetary policy, forcing the Fed China for several years, changed its "global investment strategy." Besides the "bought" increase in power as the largest holder of U.S. China is investing in strategic assets that will secure the lasting rise to world power.
This path is the ideal blueprint for its own strategic asset diversification - the
Chinese Global Investment Strategy ". first The biggest bubble in the world - government bonds of developed countries
At the height of the financial crisis were government bonds of developed countries as a safe haven. This led to massive capital inflows into these tracks and pushed yields on government bonds from the U.S., Europe and Japan to historic lows. € crisis in the wake of the spring 2010 the different European country credit ratings moved more into the focus, leading to additional capital flows in the direction of government bonds with "prime" credit rating. Exemplary are the low yields for 10-year German government bonds of up to 2.10% per annum or U.S. government bonds with 2.70% pa above.
moved in times of high uncertainty about future economic development, the market for classic historical patterns. After the collapse of capital markets due to the financial crisis was or had the majority of global investors extremely risk averse position. To avoid risks of capital was invested in the bond markets with high liquidity - the return on government bonds and corporate bonds fell through the floor.
Another effect is currently based in the prices of government bonds. The United States, United Kingdom and Japan stimulate its economy by printing money, ie the required capital for the rehabilitation of the domestic economy is applied by increasing the national debt.
This means that the national debt to rise with higher dynamics and highlights the need for a sustainable fiscal consolidation in the distance.
Ensuring the financing of this new government debt is via the purchase of government bonds by the national central banks, ie, by pressing the Druckerpresse.Die total assets of the U.S. central bank, for example, is currently at about 2.3 trillion dollars.
Central banks are thus in a position to yields on government bonds by buying artificially low to . Keep Meanwhile, increasing the outstanding amount of money that circulates, however due to the little skeptical prospects, but is parked in short-term investments.
The expansion of money will be felt later than if they increase the velocity of circulation of capital, ie an increasing number of investors invested the money or verkonsumiert. The kindling inflationary trends, thereby tacitly accepted and even promoted as desirable.
Conclusion: The current yield levels are government bonds of developed nations, ie USA, Japan and Europe clearly overvalued. The opportunities outweigh the risks significantly. To the pressing questions to escalating public debt demographic change are missing the answers.
The credit quality of the developed nations are falling, inflation risks are increasing, a permanent deflationary development would exacerbate the problem of public debt as well - with the increasing risk of state failures. are sound reasons for investing in this level of return it.
second Global currency war - and what are the consequences Once the problems have shifted from bank balance sheets in the national budget, the question of credible debt repayment. The desired solution containing moderate consolidation of the national budget, economically sound tax increases on a growing economy and a partial Weginflationierung the national debt.
Ideally, economic growth higher, because it generates tax revenue. Increasing the revenue of the state, must then be corrected on the expenditure side less. Tempting, therefore, the idea of \u200b\u200bgenerating a weakening of their currencies have a positive impact on the domestic export.
The deliberate weakening of its currency is currently operated by the United States. In order to divert attention from its own strategy of a weak U.S. dollar, China will put in the pillory and invited to an appreciation of Chinese currency. This appreciation can only be done by relaxing the existing rigid dollar peg. So far, China denied the other hand, as this rapid appreciation of the yuan would result, which impairs the export prospects of China on the world market. The undervaluation of the Chinese currency creates a competitive advantage, you want to get the Chinese to the further development of its economy. The associated quasi-underpayment of Chinese companies and people it is considered acceptable.
China but this is in a position to actively manage the exchange rate influences on his land.
Other nations have to influencing its exchange rate more difficult. In systems of floating exchange rates, there is the price of the currency supply and demand. The offer in U.S. dollars is huge and the demand for higher-value currency is high. As the global trade is dominated by the strong U.S. dollar, the global spread of the U.S. dollar is enormous. The trend is however apparent that the percentage decreases of invoiced in U.S. dollar trade. This leads to an increased demand for other currencies, such as yen and euro. The consequences are significant enhancements of these currencies, as seen recently in high dynamic
. The attempts of the Japanese central bank to weaken yen by selling its own currency again are initially failed. One gets the impression that if all the industrialized nations could live with a weaker local currency. However, this will not actually be possible. As these currencies almost the entire global foreign trade is conducted, the weakness of a currency, only the strength of other currencies to follow.
operates The diversification of currency reserves of China, more recently, through bilateral agreements with other countries. Agreements for the settlement of trading in their domestic currencies have been made with Turkey, Iran and Russia. Here was deliberately avoided to a settlement in U.S. dollars. Other agreements folgen und dafür sorgen, daß sich die Währungsreserven der Chinesen stärker diversifizieren.
Fazit : Die Industrienationen werden wechselseitige Schwächephasen ihrer Währung erleben. Für die USA und Japan ist eine schwache Währung ein Segen, für Europa wird sich die Schwächung des Euro spätestens dann einstellen, wenn erneut Transferleistungen innerhalb der Währungsgemeinschaft erforderlich sind, um den Staatsbankrott einzelner Mitgliedsstaaten abzuwenden.
Die chinesische Strategie der stärkeren Diversifikation der Währungsreserven erscheint vor diesem Hintergrund als probates Mittel zur Anlageoptimierung. Währungen und Bonds aus Industrienationen and emerging countries with healthy government budgets, current account surpluses and significant economic growth in the future significantly lower risk / return point of view interesting. Besides in some cases significantly higher interest rates and currency gains beckon, as these small currency areas will benefit from the difficulties of the incumbents by inflows.
Examples include the development of the Swiss franc, Norwegian krone and the emerging area of \u200b\u200bthe Brazilian Real and the Turkish lira. Brazil has doubled as a result of the revaluation of its currency by foreign inflows, taxes on foreign bond investments in Canada. It can be seen that the global capital flows are starting to change.
third Privatization of the profits - global stock investments The real winners of the crisis are global companies. While the losses are transferred from the risks of financial crisis on the national debt to the public, the profits are privatized in the aid packages. A more pronounced downturn in the global economy has been avoided and so many companies is now better than ever before.
Government measures only ignite a national flash in the pan, as companies run while the government orders, but not in other capacities invest locally, as they expect the end of government orders. The company achieved profits remain in the company's cash and not reinvested in the domestic economy. The state measure shall order while existing jobs, create new jobs but hardly sustainable. Sound effects from the will, the call for renewed government support loud again - as happened in the U.S.. This
invest globally successful companies have long and increasingly in emerging countries are building up their capacities. Use tax incentives in these countries and the significantly lower labor costs compared to lower their costs and increase their profit margin. The presence in the emerging markets improved the company's image in those countries and open up new market potential with high growth rates.
This innovation plays a minor role, as the pent-up potential of these countries is enormous. In order to develop this potential, no change of the product is required. The goods must be produced inexpensively and made available to be sold successfully in these countries. Thus, the company indirectly
use the money from government stimulus packages for the creation of jobs in the emerging markets. This increases the company's future profits, leading at home but hardly to an actual Improvement of the situation. On the contrary, in the U.S., leading companies have used the crisis to be separated from a large number of employees that they hire no longer following the crisis. These jobs have migrated to other countries or efficiency gains fell victim.
Companies invest directly in the regions with high real economic growth. The economic development in the country remains, however, or suffer even less.
While China is expecting more than 10 percent economic growth for 2010, the forecast for the U.S. GDP was recently revised to 1.7% this year. The future growth prospects speak clearly in favor of the emerging Nationen und nur dort, wo die Wirtschaft nachhaltig wächst, sind dauerhafte Renditen erzielbar.
Fazit : Der Aufstieg der Schwellenländer, insbesondere Chinas, dürfte nicht mehr aufzuhalten sein. Die immense Zahl junger gut qualifizierter Menschen, die allein im asiatischen Raum den globalen Arbeitsmärkten zu niedrigen Löhnen zur Verfügung stehen, wird weitere Verschiebungen in der weltweiten Arbeitsteilung nach sich ziehen. Profiteure sind die Bevölkerung und die Unternehmen in den Schwellenländern, sowie global agierende Unternehmen mit weltweit etablierten Produkten und Schlüsseltechnologien.
Nachhaltige Vermögenszuwächse versprechen nur Unternehmen, denen es gelingt, to raise long-term growth potential. Besides opening up new markets, the global players will continue to grow through acquisitions, or using existing cash reserves to buy back its own shares. Of all these measures will benefit the share price.
The Chinese are the world on a buying spree. Also on her shopping list are companies with key technologies, technical expertise and businesses with access to key raw materials.
addition to these strategic long-term investors will attract the international system of emergency due to low interest rates much capital in the equity markets. With dividend yields above 5% of stock investments, the investment in fixed income securities appears little lucrative.
Due to the high uncertainty on the capital markets, the vast investments in the stock market can long-term nature of speculative exuberance are currently no speech. Many large institutional investors such as banks, insurance companies, pension funds and mutual funds are currently invested in equities still chronic. In return promises of 4 percent or more compared with their investors, these investors come under massive pressure to act or risk not achieving their target returns.
This is also clear that an investment in financial stocks, despite some lush dividend yield, should be avoided or underweight. The longer the
by central banks prescribed low interest rates is, the more this market players come under pressure for higher performance to take risks and to increase their equity exposure. Ending the low interest rates threaten to high losses in the bond portfolio.
4th Investments in the global real estate markets The global real estate markets are extremely heterogeneous. In the U.S., home prices are still under pressure, a real recovery is still proving elusive. Also
on U.S. commercial real estate market still no turn in sight. For a sustainable turnaround a significant improvement in the labor market is required.
The number of foreclosures and distress sales is still increasing, while there is a significant investor in spending restraint, are traded mainly Topimmobilien.
Also in Europe are observed in many countries falling property prices. From the time of the construction boom in the southern European countries are significantly over-capacity and the downward pressure on prices. The share of leveraged real estate is high and the demand relates very verhalten.Dies particularly private housing markets in Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece.
United Kingdom and Ireland through a difficult economic time. While commercial Top Properties in the City of London have again increased significantly, are the private Real estate markets on the ground.
Unlike the situation in Germany. The only moderate growth of real estate prices of the last decade can be expected for the future of a stable, positive performance.
is interesting in this context that begin first institutional investors to acquire large-scale real estate in Germany to bring in the future stable income to the portfolio.
Overall, for Europe to expect that increasing the sale of objects from state ownership to fill the empty state and local coffers. This will, as additional supply on market prices.
Also in the field of commercial property that rests the hope of emerging Markets.
In countries such as China, Singapore, South Korea and Australia are growing the economy and continue to be the best risk-adjusted returns achieved. In Hong Kong, however, the market is due to the sharp decline in yields to be very expensive.
Conclusion: The global real estate markets remain difficult. The property in kind value offers as an alternative to monetary values \u200b\u200bon yet. The expected returns in this asset class behave in the immediate future but rather. The best starting position here as well those economies that have economic growth and their number is growing jobs. is specifically Despite the best prospects be observed in Asia, that the
house prices are already there tends to be high, which limits the scope for further price increases more likely.
5th Raw materials - Direct access vs.. Derivative solution
The Chinese commodity strategy is fascinating and threatening. China is already in possession of over 95% of the raw materials in the "Rare Earth". These raw materials are needed in the production of high-tech products.
China's policy of "soft power" has the country in Africa direct access to the largest raw material incidents on the continent opened up. Through political alliances and direct investment in these Countries, China has made allies, the future of this vast appetite for raw materials are beneficial.
With the resource-rich Russia, China signed bilateral trade agreements, which are intended to intensify the cooperation between the two countries and provides for the direct exchange of goods in each currency.
through takeover bids for commodity groups, such as Rio Tinto in 2009 and last Potash Corp.. by Chinese companies have tried other natural resources for China to open up.
46.5% of world crude steel production in 2009 comes from China. 48% of the market supply of finished steel products in 2009 goes to China. Steel plays a key role for China for the further expansion of infrastructure. Currently, only 11 Chinese cities have a street or subway. The construction of additional rail networks has already begun in 19 other cities. But surprisingly, the plan is likely to build up to 2020 134 new airports by 2030 and 95% of the Chinese population to tie in with airports within 100 km distance.
mind can be calculated, which is enormous demand for raw materials needed to develop a nation, with currently about 1.3 billion people from emerging countries to industrial nations.
is recognizable because two things. countries, growth and wealth growth in emerging a permanent increase in demand for commodities will generate. The use of resource-saving Verfahren wird diesen Trend nicht aufhalten. Bei knappen Rohstoffen führt die erhöhte Nachfrage unweigerlich zu steigenden Preisen. Ab einem bestimmten Preisniveau ist zu erwarten, daß die Beschaffung benötigter Rohstoffe so teuer wird, daß dies die weitere Entwicklung in anderen Schwellenländern hemmen könnte.
Die chinesische Strategie bevorzugt den Direktzugang zu Rohstoffen. An den Kapitalmärkten hingegen werden viele Rohstoffinvestments in Derivaten (Futures) abgebildet. Der Nachteil aller Derivate ist, daß sie zwar ein Recht verbriefen, als Garantiegeber aber eine Bank fungiert.
Damit besteht kein direkter Zugriff auf den zugrundeliegenden Rohstoff, sondern nur ein Recht auf eine Ausgleichszahlung. Dies kann sich bei den aktuellen Problemen im Weltfinanzsystem schnell als Bumerang erweisen.
Fazit : Der Rohstoffsektor hat nicht nur für China eine immense strategische Bedeutung. Die Knappheit vieler Rohstoffe wird zur Wachstumsbegrenzung. Dies wird zu steigenden Preisen für Rohstoffe führen. Neben Investments in lagerfähige Rohstoffe mit physischen Anspruchsrechten (Gold, Silber, Platin, Palladium) sind Anlagen in Rohstoffaktien einer derivativen Lösung vorzuziehen.
Die
„Chinese Global Investment Strategy“ läßt sich wie folgt zusammenfassen.
1.Reduziere die Investments in Staats- und Bankanleihen der Industrienationen
2.Erwerbe Bonds und Währungen der zukünftigen Gewinner der Globalisierung
3.Investiere verstärkt in „reale“ Assets, d.h. Aktien, Rohstoffe und Immobilien
4.Konzentration auf Global Player und ausgewählte Schwellenländer
5.Investiere dort,wo das Wirtschaftswachstum am höchsten ist
6.Erziele direkten Zugriff auf die strategisch wichtigen Wirtschaftsgüter
7.Vermeide Derivate !
8.Strategien funktionieren langfristig – das muß der Investmenthorizont sein Die exakte Asset Allocation ist eine sehr anlegerspezifische Aufgabe. Die jeweiligen Zielinvestments sind mit Ihren individuellen Anlagezielen und Kenntnissen abzu-
gleichen und in to bring your personal context. For this I refer you to the financial adviser you trust. Good luck with your personal
"Chinese Global Investment Strategy" .
Dirk Schmidt-sense
Contact: dissi@web.de
Disclaimer:
All other data and information in this document comes from open sources that are believed to be reliable, and are based on the legal situation at the time of publication which may change without notice. For the timeliness, accuracy and completeness of the data and information the author is therefore not. Provide information in this document are representations and explanations of the respective views of the author at the time of its creation and is subject to change without notice. The authoritative status of all data, information, images and explanations is noted on the front of this document. All contents of this document are provided for your own information and should help you make an informed, independent investment decision. However, they do not constitute individual investment advice or a recommendation for action and not replace the investment advice by the bank or the assessment of individual circumstances by a tax adviser. There is no Liability for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from the distribution or use of this document or its contents taken.
